文章归档: April, 2018

白宫内部报告,揭露美国打压中国芯片行业内幕

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ZTE turmoil is undoubtedly a profound education for China’s semiconductor and even the internet technology industry.

Yesterday, Jingdong CEO Liu Qiangdong said publicly that the ZTE incident has hit all Chinese Internet companies with a slap in the face; Alibaba also recently announced the acquisition of Tianwei, a wholly-owned chip company, and invested in six chip companies. For a Time, it was necessary to “catch up with the power of the nation”, and the cries for catching up with the US chip industry were buzzing.

However, we are determined to be very good. We should also fully understand the fierce competition in the semiconductor industry represented by chips.

Recently, the island received a report entitled “Ensuring US Leadership in Semiconductors” issued by the US President’s Science and Technology Advisory Committee. Although the article was published in January 2017, it repeatedly mentioned it to China. Let us glimpse the logic of the United States’ “cutting off” Zhongxinghoulu to curb the development of China’s semiconductor industry.

Kaki Island made a combing excerpt and looked at:

Logic

Since it is necessary to comprehensively criticize “China, then it must be famous. As a result, the article began to make a judgment: From a historical point of view, the global semiconductor market has never been a completely competitive market. The so-called imperfect competition is that there are institutional interventions. Sure enough, the article states that it is based on research conducted by the government and academia. Due to the consideration of national defense security, some of these technologies are highly restrictive.

Based on this, the report made a second judgment: “If we can innovate quickly, it can reduce the threat posed by China. But once the innovation in the United States is hindered, competitors can easily follow. So stay ahead. The fundamental way is to surpass all competitors.”

In order to make its own practice more reasonable, the report also “reproached” certain Chinese practices, such as “We believe that China’s competitive approach is to distort the market. They destroy US market share by destroying innovation and make the United States face homeland security.” Danger.”

From this, the report concludes that the U.S. government should not remain silent or pessimistic in the face of the threat of China’s rise. In the process of innovation, the U.S. government should try its best to stop China’s destruction and influence.

How to do it?

美国应该和中国进行会谈,明白中国的真实意图,通过加入联盟的方式巩固内部投资安全和出口控制,并对中国的某些违反国际协议的某些方式进行限制。美国同样需要调整国土安全的相关协定,预防中国可能带来的安全威胁。

控诉

在此基础之上,中国在该领域做的一切事情,对于美国来说,都变成了极具威胁性的行动。

比如,他们虽然也承认:中国在半导体技术方面的追随远远落后于美国。中国的先进制造技术跟美国、台湾和其他先进的半导体玩家比较,也是大大不如的。现在中国有很多半导体Fab,但都比当前主流的工艺落后1到1.5个世代。

但落后是可以接受的,你奋起直追就不能接受了。因此,诸如中国在2014年颁布“IC推进纲领”来促进中国半导体产业发展的举动,都变成了一系列负面行为。

报告指出:中国的半导体策略依赖于其庞大的经费支持。这是一个包括国家基金和私募资产在内的,金额总额达到1500亿美元,周期长达十年的投资。中国主要目的是通过对先进企业的投资和收购获取其中的技术。美国过去五年共230亿美元的并购规模与其对比,那就是小巫见大巫。

事实上,在美国看来,中国整个半导体的建设策略(美国将其分成了两点:补贴和零和博弈),都是“别有用心”的。

首先来看补贴。众所周知,为了支持行业发展,中国常常会提供各类补贴,半导体行业当然也不例外。但这一点,美国也不能忍,他们称:

短期来看,中国的补贴对于美国公司和消费者来说,是利好的,这些钱能够帮忙降低成本和产品价格。但长期来说,这些补贴会减弱其创新能力。而对美国来说,由于中国会将其产品的销售范围扩大,这会增加美国国土安全面临的风险。而生产的过剩,则会对直接竞争者构成影响。这些补贴,也会直接侵蚀美国企业的市场份额,影响企业的雇佣状况和创新。

再来看报告中所谓的中国的”零和博弈“策略。

强迫或者鼓励本土消费者购买中国半导体供应商的产品,中国在这方面的表现很突出。这会使全球创新的动力骤减。对于那些非中国的供应商来说,市场就更小了。

强迫用技术换市场,以降低美国企业的创新动力。这同样会引致先进技术能够被所有企业迅速复制的可能,从而使市场向中国集中。而随着中国市场的高度集中,中国就有能力去推动技术转移,这是一个恶性循环。

盗窃IP。根据媒体报道,中国经常明里暗里盗取IP技术,通过审查的方式,去检查哪些安全可控的技术,以此获取相关半导体的技术细节。

Look, what a serious accusation. Not to mention that there are no real hammers. Just look at this wording and this term, people feel very scary.

Strategies

If there is a sense of “pretty good” in front of it, when the report mentions the tactical part, it is naked in the fight against China.

For example, it is obvious that the best way to win is to “run faster on your own,” but they still care about China: In the process of reducing China’s catch-up speed, we will face many temptations. Once the United States ceases to innovate, China’s lead in the semiconductor field is inevitable. Therefore, the key to maintaining U.S. leadership is continuous innovation.

In this regard, the United States can feel quite good about its own feelings: The United States advocates opening up global trade and investment. This position will benefit consumers and the global economy. China is more willing to invest subsidies in mature companies and industries and continue to help them. Growth and growth, and eventually excess production capacity, have caused the economy to suffer; China has benefited from the global opening, but seldom undertakes corresponding obligations. In many cases, China has hindered normal marketization.

Not only that, the report has also come to a conclusion that is “very different”: Do not oppose China’s progress conditionally. How should that be opposed? The report suggests that the U.S. government needs to identify those special semiconductor technologies and companies, protect them, and refuse to make acquisitions to avoid possible security threats. Oh, the island sister finally knows why Ziguang’s acquisition of the American chip company has repeatedly failed.

Even more ambiguous is still behind.

The United States has many ways to limit China’s actions. This includes formal and informal trade and investment regulations, as well as similar CFIUS unilateral review tools based on homeland security considerations. It seems that these restrictions are still very significant.

The United States should use defense security as a starting point for making relevant decisions. In certain fields, China should not give any possibility of negotiation, for example, China’s so-called “security and controllability” in the field of information technology.

If Chinese enterprises receive government support and obtain advanced technology products from the US side and eventually push them to the consequences of overcapacity, then for our policy makers, we need to consider whether or not to accept China’s acquisition.

Speaking of this, it seems that the United States will not move its decision to contain China’s semiconductor development. For us, recognizing reality and then pursuing it is a necessary step.

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